In The News

Investors and Globalization’s Decline: Barron’s

Avi Salzman and Nicholas Jasinski March 18, 2019
The bout of protectionism and transactional approaches to trade will linger even after China and the United States reach a trade agreemen. “Globalization is being overwhelmed by populism, nationalism, and protectionism,” explain Avi Salzman and Nicholas Jasinski for Barron’s, adding that globalization has long moved in cycles and is “no longer the dominant force.” Trade growth has slowed,...

US Debt and Foreign Creditors: Wall Street Journal

Daniel Kruger and Kate Davidson February 12, 2019
Foreign investors are less keen to own US government bonds, but domestic investors pick up the slack for now. “Foreign ownership of U.S. government debt has been decreasing since it reached a peak of about 55% during the financial crisis in 2008, falling below 40% in November for the first time since 2003, according to the most recent Treasury data,” report Daniel Kruger and Kate Davidson for the...

BBC: UK Ready for No-Deal Brexit?

Chris Morris February 1, 2019
The United Kingdom, as an EU member, shares four decades of laws on trade, immigration, finance, health and safety, and more. If the EU and the UK part ways with no deal or extension for the negotiations and if the UK does not prepare replacement laws, that could pose uncertainty and serious disruption in most policy areas, reports Chris Morris for the BBC news. The report outlines progress on...

Project Syndicate: Global Trade Cycle Warnings

Stephen S. Roach January 29, 2019
Growth in global trade has slowed since the 2008 debt crisis, and the trade cycle confronts many uncertainties in 2019, including Brexit, a US-China trade war and military conflicts that could ignite at any time. The International Monetary Fund has already revised its forecasts for global economic growth, from 3.7 to 3.5 percent. Stephen Roach, an economist and senior fellow at at Yale’s Jackson...

New Statesman: Revenge of the Nation State

John Bew November 15, 2018
The death of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi reveals that the international community has little control over rogue states that resist criticism by any means necessary. Khashoggi had criticized Saudi Arabia’s horrific and wasteful war in Yemen, and his murder “conforms to a general pattern of degeneration in 21st century international relations, in which respect for human rights is eroding,...

Project Syndicate: Makings of a 2020 Recession

Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa October 1, 2018
A global recession is anticipated in 2020, and Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa suggest it could be severe. Fiscal-stimulus policies are unsustainable and contribute to overheating and inflation, which in turn drives up interest rates. US trade disputes with China, Europe, Mexico and Canada disrupt supply chains and contributes to slowed growth. Adding complications: a US crackdown on...

Time: Financial Crisis Undermined Global Order

Ian Bremmer September 21, 2018
Crises give countries an incentive to adjust, and the 2008 financial crisis – following on the heels of the costly war in Iraq – eroded confidence in US leadership and capitalism. Likewise, Europe struggled with the euro crisis and a stream of migrants fleeing unrest and conflict in the Middle East. “Today, the global balance of power is no longer clear,” argues Ian Bremmer for Time. China...