In The News

Project Syndicate: Makings of a 2020 Recession

Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa October 1, 2018
A global recession is anticipated in 2020, and Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa suggest it could be severe. Fiscal-stimulus policies are unsustainable and contribute to overheating and inflation, which in turn drives up interest rates. US trade disputes with China, Europe, Mexico and Canada disrupt supply chains and contributes to slowed growth. Adding complications: a US crackdown on...

CNBC: Europe, Russia, China Join Forces to Dodge Iran Sanctions

Natasha Turak September 25, 2018
The United States withdrew from the international agreement to contain Iran’s weapons program and imposed sanctions on Iran’s oil, aviation, auto and other industries as well as others doing business with Iran. Other signatories to the agreement – France, Britain, Germany, Russia and China – have developed a “special purpose vehicle” to “assist and reassure economic operators pursuing legitimate...

OilPrice.com: Iran Sanctions Damage US Dollar

Nick Cunningham September 20, 2018
The United States withdrew from an international deal that contained Iran’s nuclear program and then reimposed sanctions. Oil traders rely on US dollars. “The role of the greenback in the international financial system is the reason why the U.S. can prevent much of the world from buying oil from Iran,” explains Nick Cunningham for OilPrice.com. “European policymakers have scrambled to try to...

Bloomberg: Global Economy Feels Lehman Fallout 10 Years Later

Simon Kennedy and Sam Dodge September 17, 2018
Investments in subprime mortgages and the collapse of Lehman Brothers contributed to the 2008 financial crisis with global economic and political fallout due to stalled growth and increased government intervention. The consequences linger today worldwide with increased debt, wage stagnation, widening inequality and lingering unemployment in some nations. “The deepest international recession since...

Global Finance: Consequences of Rising Oil Prices

Laurence Neville September 14, 2018
Oil prices have been volatile, moving from more than $100 per barrel in 2014 to $27 in 2016 to more than $75 today. Oil producers with budgets depending on oil revenue like Venezuela could benefit. Still, global growth depends on stable energy prices, and high oil prices could trigger inflation and threaten emerging economies, which are both more energy intensive and less energy efficient than...

Quartz: Crisis in Emerging Market Currencies

Eshe Nelson September 3, 2018
Currency worries are not unusual for emerging economies. As currencies decline in value, investors may withdraw, and exchange with other currencies can become difficult; the countries struggle to make payments especially on debt in more costly US dollars. “What began in Argentina and Turkey has snowballed into broader collapse in confidence that has policy makers in Indonesia, India, South Africa...

Stratfor: Brazil's Farming Lobby Wields Growing Power

August 31, 2018
Brazil is a leading agriculture producer after the United States, China and India and a major exporter. The country’s agriculture sector supports trade, which increases agriculture’s political heft and influence over foreign policies, whereas the sector in the United States and the European Union is more protectionist. “With such influence, the farm lobby has forced the government to reduce tax...