Recent YaleGlobal Articles

中美为拯救经济而斗争（一）

January 30, 2009

亚洲的过度生产和储蓄以及西方的过度消费和借贷所引发的贸易失衡，使全球严峻的经济衰退雪上加霜。美国及西方其他国家的分析家们在慌乱地寻求补救方案，他们一直在关注中国万亿多美元的公积金，并认为中国国内支出的增长可能会缓解全球经济阵痛。耶鲁全球在线这组被分成两个部分的文章表明，双方错误的政策导致了巨大的贸易失衡，因此企望中国自行将该问题迅速解决是没有道理的。在第一篇文章中，经济学家许思涛集中讨论了中国地方政府通过发行各种消费券刺激经济的努力。该方案在中国地方政府中流行起来，所有这些地方政府都为了经济增长、就业和全国关注度而展开了激烈的竞争。多数中国消费者对此反应冷淡，因为他们担心较高的税收、失业、...

US and China: Grappling Over Economic Rescue – Part I

Xu Sitao

January 30, 2009

Trade imbalances, fueled by overproduction and saving in Asia, too much consumption and debt in the West, have compounded the harsh global recession. Analysts in the US and elsewhere in the West floundering for a remedy have focused on China’s trillion-plus dollar surplus and suggest that an...

Obama and the World: Time to Deliver

Bruce Stokes

January 28, 2009

President Barack Obama must act quickly on a range of foreign-policy issues to demonstrate that the United States is prepared for meaningful change in its approach to resolve problems that have defied solution. Bruce Stokes, international-affairs columnist, cautions that Obama has a small window of...

NATO’s Double Standards Make for a Hollow Alliance

Alexander Melikishvili

January 26, 2009

NATO increasingly confronts an existential crisis, reflected by three mutually reinforcing trends – inconsistent and fast-paced enlargement policy, problematic internal cohesion and inadequate military spending. Researcher Alexander Melikishvili offers cases that point to the challenges NATO faces...

Gaza Explosions Reverberate in Europe

Shada Islam

January 23, 2009

Israel invaded Gaza and waged war for 22 days, in response to Hamas firing a nonstop barrage of rockets over the border and refusing to recognize Israel’s right to exist: 13 Israelis and 1,300 Palestinians died, and more than 50,000 people were left homeless. A tenuous ceasefire is in place, but...

Exporting People

Joseph Chamie

January 21, 2009

In coming decades, a population rise in developing nations is projected to greatly surpass expected population declines among developed countries. Some developing nations that lack industry and ample jobs forestalled poverty by devising policies that encourage citizens to work abroad. That strategy...

输出人口

约瑟夫•夏米 (Joseph Chamie)

January 21, 2009

未来几十年内，发展中国家人口增长的数量将会远远超过预期的发达国家人口下降的数量。工业不发达、就业机会不够多的一些发展中国家，凭借着推行鼓励居民出国打工的政策遏制贫困。这一政策支撑了国内就业，提升了个人技能，通过劳务汇款还增加了外汇收入，从而有助于缓解贫困问题。但在当前的经济危机下，工人们不再向国内汇款，甚至返回国内，该政策也可能适得其反。人口统计学家约瑟夫•夏米（Joseph Chamie）对墨西哥、摩洛哥和菲律宾的情况进行了分析——这几个国家在过去一个世纪里都经历了人口的大幅增长，也都曾将劳动力输出作为一个有用的政策选择。近年来，富裕国家开始试图严格入境条件，并且在困难时期通过各种活动，...

The Dilemma of Dealing With Terror Central

Ramesh Thakur

January 19, 2009

Ample evidence suggests that elements in Pakistan were behind November’s brutal terrorist assaults in Mumbai claiming more than 160 lives. As the clamor for retribution rises in India, the international community has urged restraint. International relations expert Ramesh Thakur argues that...

Regional Fallout from Thai Turmoil

Bertil Lintner

January 15, 2009

Bitter political division in Thailand against the backdrop of the failing health of the constitutional monarch and the resultant instability has been affecting trade and tourism for neighboring nations that rely on the country as a regional hub, explains journalist and author Bertil Lintner. After...

Anti-Piracy Patrols Presage Rising Naval Powers

Brian Wilson

January 13, 2009

The lawlessness arising from the poor desert nation of Somalia (estimated per capita GDP is $600) has forced the world to sit up and take note. With its coastal waters depleted by over-fishing, some Somalis have taken up piracy as a lucrative profession, using small boats and arms to hijack the...

Why Iran Seeks Nuclear Weapons

Arch Roberts Jr.

January 8, 2009

With the US at war in bordering Iraq and Afghanistan, with Israel invading the Gaza Strip, any quest by Iran for nuclear weapons does not seem so outlandish. Iran insists its uranium-enrichment program is for peaceful purposes, but by sending rockets to its proxies, Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah...

中美两国必须合作以“驯服”不平衡

迈克尔•佩蒂斯（Michael Pettis）

January 6, 2009

随着流动性激增和贸易不平衡加剧，没有一个人会对全球经济危机感到吃惊，正像北京大学金融教授迈克尔•佩蒂斯（Michael Pettis）所解释的那样，因为这已经成为一个历史模式。佩蒂斯详细梳理了经济危机的来龙去脉，他认为，经济危机开始于20世纪80年代，那时，美国的政策鼓励抵押贷款的证券化，将非流动性资产衍生成流动性强的投资；美国的家庭将钱变成了房子而不是存储在银行，而且，房价不断飙升；与此同时，中国享受着贸易顺差，积累了大量美元，并用这些美元对美国的资产进行投资。一个自我强化的循环导致美国消费者的消费不断增加，中国工厂生产的产品越来越多，中美两国的银行借出的钱也越来越多，最终，...

US and China Must Tame Imbalances Together

Michael Pettis

January 6, 2009

With surging liquidity and massive trade imbalances, no one should have been surprised by the global economic crisis, because as finance professor of Peking University Michael Pettis explains, this has been the historical pattern. Pettis details the history of the crisis, starting in 1980s, when US...

Divergence Grows Between China and the West – Part II

Michael C. Davis

December 23, 2008

The West expresses increasing concern as China seems bent on hewing its own course, even on domestic matters such as handling unrest in Tibet, while China naturally resents foreign interference in domestic affairs. In the second of this two-part YaleGlobal series on divergence in foreign policy...

中国和西方之间的分歧渐增之二

迈克 C•戴维斯 (Michael C. Davis)

December 23, 2008

当中国专注于调整自己的行动进程时，西方恰恰提高了对诸如如何处理西藏地区的动荡局面等中国内政的关注，尽管这些对中国内政的外来干涉必然招致中国的憎恶。耶路全球化在线中国与西方对外政策分歧系列的第二部分，法学教授迈克•戴维斯分析了由西藏问题引发的中国与西方持续升温的紧张关系，中国方面取消了中国—欧盟峰会就是这种紧张关系的一个有力的证明。他指出中国跟西藏流亡者之间的对话未能取得成就。三月份中国对西藏地区发生的抗议活动进行暴力镇压后，一些西方人士主张联合抵制北京奥运会。自那时起，中国一直威胁要回避与任何跟西藏的精神领袖达赖喇嘛进行会面的国际政要之间的接触。西藏人追求包括语言、宗教、教育、环境保护、...

中国与西方的分歧日益扩大——第一部分

许思涛 (Xu Sitao)

December 18, 2008

在一连串危机之下，国际社会希望中国担负起全球领导者的角色。但是令西方世界惊恐的是，中国在推行政策时好像罔顾国际反应。本期耶鲁全球就中国与西方国家在全球经济危机和西藏地区不满情绪加剧等两个问题上日益扩大的分歧进行了分析。由于贸易失衡的关系，中国拥有2万亿美元的外汇储备，而债务大国们对中国快速增长的贸易盈余、低汇率和对全球变暖的影响等问题上的指责正在日益增多。但经济学家许思涛提醒人们，中国这个世界上人口最多的国家也面临自身的挑战，这些挑战包括：出口订单减少，经济受损，逐渐扩大的收入差距和数百万人失业导致国内人民不满情绪累加。徐认为，中国领导人已经意识到需要保持可持续增长、节约能源、...

Divergence Grows Between China and the West – Part I

Xu Sitao

December 18, 2008

The international community hopes that China steps up as a global leader on a wide array of crises. But the West is then taken aback when China goes about pursuing policy with seeming unconcern about the world. This YaleGlobal series analyzes the growing divergence between China and the West over...

Mortgages May Be Toxic, But US Treasuries Appear a Safe Haven

Ashok Bardhan

December 16, 2008

While the US financial markets were the source behind global credit calamity and still present tremendous uncertainty, foreign investors continue to demonstrate trust in US government institutions by increasing investments in US Treasuries. That trust gives policymakers time and space to work on...

Obama’s First Trip Abroad Should Be to China

Jeffrey E. Garten

December 12, 2008

President-elect Barack Obama confronts a daunting array of immediate economic and security challenges. But that does not mean the Obama administration should neglect building stronger ties with China, urges Jeffrey Garten, international trade and finance professor at Yale and a former US...

为什么对自由贸易感到不安