Recent YaleGlobal Articles

秦家骢(Frank Ching)
February 8, 2012
中国强硬的政权正努力打造软实力,让主导影响的西方媒体和文化忧心不已。记者秦家骢解释到,中国政府正采取步骤,补救问题。一个成功的例子是超过300所孔子学院的建立,许多孔子学院与大学合办,在差不多100个国家里教授汉语和中国文化。中国还投资数百万,加入国际媒体的竞争。本周,中国的中央电视台在其华盛顿的演播厅开播。但软实力很棘手,很少完全符合官方立场。就此而言,美国中国都一样。软实力源自于生气勃勃的市民社会,有思想,有创意的自由和创新,而不是民族主义、言论审查或对民主价值的痛恨。政府政策为学术、艺术和经济自由提供背景和保护。秦家骢在报道中指出,中国在软实力问题上咄咄逼人,...
Mohamed El Dahshan
February 6, 2012
The Muslim Brotherhood is Egypt’s largest opposition group, so it’s no surprise that its political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party, secured nearly half the votes in parliamentary elections. Campaign rhetoric proposed alcohol restrictions, gender-segregated beaches, and revision of Egypt’s peace...
穆罕默德•艾•塔罕(Mohamed El Dahshan)
February 6, 2012
穆斯林兄弟会(以下简称“穆兄会”)是埃及国内最大的反对派,因此,穆兄会所组建的“自由与正义党”获得议会选举将近一半的票数,也就不足为奇了。其竞选口号是禁酒、性别隔离、呼吁修正同以色列签订的和平条约。该伊斯兰政党尚未上台,已有大堆紧迫的问题在等着:审判其境内43名为人权和政治性非政府组织工作的员工,其中包括19名美国人,他们被控未经官方许可而接受外国援助;处理因此而导致的紧张的美埃关系;以及控制骚乱、暴力、以及要求过渡军政府下台,移交权力给民选政府的浪潮。经济学家穆罕默德•艾•塔罕(Mohamed El Dahshan)认为:“自由与正义党”必须确保同极端主义组织或同温和派组织的联盟,...
大卫•达皮斯(David Dapice)
February 3, 2012
导致美国就业机会减少的“罪魁祸首”是科学技术和不断提高的生产力,而不是外包。美国总统已经提议修改税收政策,以鼓励各家企业将不断增长的利润用于美国境内的工厂生产和研究工作。但制造业正在走农业的老路:用更少的工人创造更大的产量。经济学家大卫•达皮斯(David Dapice)指出:“由于机械自动化和科学技术的应用,现在每位工厂工人每小时的产量是30年前的四倍左右”。许多美国公司在国外市场比国内市场赚得更多——只有将这些收益调回国内时,它们才需要在美国上税。面对税率为35%的企业利润税,各个企业都倾向于将这些利润留在国外。以往针对公司所在地的税收减免计划,与其说有助于增加就业机会,...
David Dapice
February 3, 2012
Technology and ever-growing productivity – not outsourcing – are the main culprits behind declining jobs in the United States. The US president has proposed revising tax policy to encourage companies to apply growing profits to factories and research inside the US. But manufacturing is going the...
Shim Jae Hoon
February 1, 2012
Isolated North Korea has carried out early stages of transfer of power from Kim Jong Il to his third son, Kim Jong Un, with elaborate titles and displays of respect. But the government faces grave challenges stemming from decades of prioritizing military spending capped by a nuclear-weapons...
沈在勋(Shim Jae Hoon)
February 1, 2012
孤立的北朝鲜已经完成了从金正日到他的三儿子金正恩的权力过渡的初期阶段。金正恩现在拥有复杂的头衔,并得到明显的尊敬。但政府却面临几十年来先军政治和核武器项目造成的严峻挑战,以及自1950-1953年朝鲜战争以来与韩国之间的紧张关系,并持续拒绝进行经济改革或与国际社会合作。据估计达到国民生产总值四分之一的军队开支使2400万民众缺乏基本的生活必需品和最基本的人权。记者沈在勋报道说,北朝鲜遭遇严峻的粮食危机,可能导致三分之一的国民陷入挨饿状态。指挥和责任的链条落在一个年仅29岁缺乏经验的年轻人身上,新政府在重复从前的模式,要求粮食援助以换取终止铀浓缩项目。...
Dilip Hiro
January 30, 2012
The advantage is mutual: The Middle East has great reserves of oil, and China’s foreign-policy based on non-interference in other countries’ internal affairs is popular with the region’s authoritarian regimes. So China rejects Western efforts to impose sanctions to stop the Iranian nuclear program...
迪利普•希罗(Dilip Hiro)
January 30, 2012
中东和中国各有优势:中东有着丰富的石油资源,而中国以不干涉他国内政为基础的外交政策在该地区的专制政权国家颇受欢迎。因此,中国反对西方为了阻止伊朗核计划而对伊朗强加制裁。本文作者迪利普•希罗(Dilip Hiro)解释说,北京是伊朗石油的最大买家,购买量占伊朗出口总量20%。他回顾了近年来美国试图对伊朗实施制裁的历史,而与此同时,中国公司正与伊朗进行关于开展为期数年的石油和天然气交易的谈判。希罗报道称,中国智囊团网络中有一种共识,认为“伊朗在中东的实力不断增强,在与美国的较量中获得了越来越大的影响力”。到目前为止,贸易胜过了政治,因为中国不仅与革命后的利比亚开展贸易,...
Alain Renaudin
January 27, 2012
Citizens of wealthy nations blame globalization and competition from Asia for unemployment and other economic woes. This two-part YaleGlobal series analyzes the temptations of protectionism, particularly in France during its presidential election campaign. Promoting labels that identify a product’s...
Pierre-Noel Giraud
January 24, 2012
Multinational companies have shifted manufacturing operations and research and development from West to East, taking advantage of low wages and huge Asian markets poised for growth. On the global trade front, countries like France feel battered, and political leaders increasingly toy with...
皮埃尔-诺尔•吉劳德(Pierre-Noel Giraud)
January 24, 2012
为了利用亚洲的低廉工资和巨大市场保持增长,跨国公司将生产和研发工作从西方转移到了东方。在全球贸易的战场上,法国等国家已感到倍受打击,政治领袖们日益倾向于保护主义。本期耶鲁全球系列文章就各国如何实现全球化收益的最大化进行了探讨。在上篇中,经济学家皮埃尔-诺尔 •吉劳德(Pierre-Noel Giraud)阐述了缺乏对国际市场的监管将如何导致效率低下和就业的非均衡分布。他认为,国家政策针对的贸易商品和服务问题分为两类:可以跨越国境的流动类,和留在国境以内的非流动类。他建议各国在汇率和其他的货币及产业政策上进行合作,以实现双赢战略。新兴经济体必须发展国内市场,富裕国家必须保持开放,...
法哈德·纳泽尔(Fahad Nazer)
January 23, 2012
阿拉伯之春(The Arab Spring)激发了逊尼派叙利亚人对阿拉维派的独裁者巴沙尔?阿萨德(Bashar al Assad)的不满,阿萨德此后动用了坦克和武装部队,对抗议进行了毫不留情的镇压。在最近的自杀式爆炸发生之后,叙利亚政府迅速地谴责了基地组织,然而却没有任何组织出面声明承担责任,而与此同时,反对派领导人则质疑政府精心策划了这些袭击,以掩饰政府对抗议的暴力反应。根据联合国的估计,自2011年3月份以来,已经有超过5400人遭到杀害,而阿拉伯联盟为了制止冲突,采取了前所未有的措施。恐怖主义分析家法哈德?纳泽尔(Fahad Nazer)认为,网络报道和视频正给怒气火上浇油,...
Fahad Nazer
January 23, 2012
The Arab Spring galvanized Sunni Syrians’ discontent with Alawite dictator Bashar al Assad who has since used tanks and armed gangs in an unrelenting crackdown on protests. After recent suicide blasts, the Syrian government quickly blamed Al Qaeda, although no groups stepped forward to claim credit...
Bertil Lintner
January 20, 2012
In 1989, after the Burmese military’s brutal suppression of protests for democracy, the US ambassador dismissed the country as having “very little strategic interest.” For the next two decades, the US unleashed fierce criticism on Burma’s leaders, imposing sanctions. An unintended consequence was...
雍博瑞(Borje Ljunggren)
January 18, 2012
大型经济体内的投机泡沫和问题重重的治理可以快速扩散,影响其它经济体。本期上下两篇的耶鲁全球系列文章分析了中国所面临的全球性和地方性的挑战及其影响。在下篇中,瑞典前驻华大使雍博瑞写到,广东省乌坎村发生的反腐败抗议是以小见大,揭示了中国现存的问题。互联网让人们愈发紧密地联系在一起,这有助于暴露人们共同的抱怨不满,还有中国政府的反应模式,包括镇压和适应改良。雍博瑞指出,“简言之,乌坎事件以及在处理“群众事件”时的特别态度让人从根本上质疑政府的可靠性和管理能力。”九十年代以来对中国极权主意的研究大致分为三种学说:民主说、倾覆说和弹性极权主义说,后者近年来成为主流观点。雍博瑞总结到,...
Borje Ljunggren
January 18, 2012
Speculative bubbles and problematic governance in large economies can quickly spill over to disrupt other economies. This two-part YaleGlobal series analyzes global and local challenges facing China and their impact. In the second and final article, Borje Ljunggren, former Swedish ambassador to...
Thomas Fingar
January 16, 2012
Challenges facing the most populous nation with its fast-growing economy could quickly become global problems. This two-part YaleGlobal series analyzes trends and challenges for China as well as the potential for cooperation. Integration with the global economy, an accomplishment for China since...
托马斯•芬加(Thomas Fingar)
January 16, 2012
经济高速增长的世界第一人口大国所面临的各种挑战,很快会成为全球性问题。耶鲁全球这组上下两篇的文章分析了中国所面临的趋势和挑战,以及合作的潜力。斯坦福大学的托马斯•芬加(Thomas Fingar)写道,与世界经济融为一体,这既是中国1978年以来的成就之一,也可能引发内乱,“中国可能特别容易为境外的、不受其掌控的发展所伤害”。他指出四种需要中国领导人回应的趋势:专挑最容易的任务的战略决定,对比较棘手的事情则拖拉不前;来自其它新兴经济体好勇斗狠的竞争;不断膨胀的老龄人口的各种需要;以及高度集权的政治体制,它监管着日益复杂的政策环境,无法及时捕捉错误所在。中国与其它国家有很多共同的利益、...
Philip Whyte
January 12, 2012
One’s history is long and the other’s is short, but the City of London and the European Union have each in their own way been drivers of financial globalization and economic wealth. But the hard-hitting credit crisis, a series of bailouts and global recession have tarnished reputations of...
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